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At first, Donald Trump appeared to adopt a resolute position on the Ukrainian conflict. Following delivering warnings of "significant consequences" during the summer should Putin carried on hindering peace talks, the former president ultimately imposed major restrictions on Russia's biggest petroleum corporations, Rosneft and Lukoil. This decision substantially hindered the Russian leader's capability to support his war effort in the region.

Yet, with his latest 28-point peace plan for the conflict, reportedly developed by both nations' representatives without Ukrainian or European input, the former president has clearly returned to his Russia-friendly position.

Rewarding Invasion

This proposal would essentially reward Putin for invading a sovereign nation while putting the country's democracy in jeopardy. Although strong statements that "The nation's independence will be affirmed", significant aspects of the proposal effectively weaken that essential autonomy. What represents a Kremlin dream would likely be a catastrophe for the nation.

Showing his business experience, the former president persists to view the war as a simple land disagreement, as if ceding Putin a section of Ukraine's land will please the ruler. Yet, Putin's military campaign is not only about controlling a charred area of economically weakened territory in eastern Ukraine. Instead, it's about Ukraine's democracy – and Putin's obvious goal to weaken it so it ceases to acts as an enticing standard for the Russia's population of the accountable government that his deepening authoritarian rule prevents them.

Land Giveaways

While keeping in place the already separated Ukrainian provinces of Zaporizhzhia and Kherson, Trump's plan would compel the nation to give up the entire Donetsk province. Aside from favoring Russia with area that its military have been unsuccessful to seize in exceeding a ten years of conflict, this giveaway would leave Ukrainian defenses severely weakened.

This region is the location of Ukraine's highly-touted "fortress belt", the fortified protective structures that are a critical obstacle to invading forces. Trump would have the Ukrainian military surrender these defenses, providing Russian forces a open route to Kyiv should he subsequently opt to resume the war.

Armed Forces Reductions

Then, in a move that would enable renewed conflict easier for Russia, Trump would force the nation to cut the scale of its troops from their present 800,000 to 850,000 soldiers to a cap of six hundred thousand. Importantly, Trump's proposal imposes no similar restrictions on the invading army.

Apparently as a accommodation to Putin's attempts to characterize Ukraine's chosen by the people government as radicals, the proposal states: "Any Nazi belief system and activities must be opposed and forbidden." Apparently to underscore this point, it demands that "The nation will hold political contests in 100 days" of a peace deal. However, Trump sets no condition that the Russian leader risk his regime by holding votes in his own country.

Defense Guarantees

To be sure, the initiative has Russia pledge not to "invade neighboring countries" and to "establish in legislation its position of non-violence towards Europe and the Ukrainian people". However given that Putin has violated similar agreements in the history – including the 1994 Budapest memorandum, in which Russia pledged to recognize the nation's territorial integrity in exchange for relinquishing its former Soviet atomic arms, and the Minsk accords, in which Moscow agreed to a truce and a restoration of seized land in the region to the government – how should anyone believe Putin on this occasion?

That is why Ukraine has been so insistent on international security guarantees. While the proposal threatens a "immediate joint defense action" should Russia restart its military campaign, and provides that "Ukraine will receive strong defense commitments", the particulars vary from vague to concerning. The proposal would not only block Ukraine accession to NATO but also preclude member states from deploying military personnel on Ukrainian territory, thus precluding the reassurance force, reportedly headed by European powers, on which the Ukrainian government had been counting to deter Putin from restoring his diminished military, re-equipping, and reinvading.

Global Reaction

Another supplementary accord reportedly would provide Ukraine with a alliance-like defense commitment, in which any future "major, planned, and ongoing aggression" by the Russian Federation on Ukraine "would be considered as an act of war jeopardizing the tranquility of the Western nations." This implies a military response. But unlike a powerful Ukraine's armed forces – Ukraine's best deterrent against additional hostilities – the credibility of the parallel accord would depend on the willingness of alliance members, like Trump, to act through arms to Russia's aggression, an action they have {not