🔗 Share this article

Amid the immense confusion following the American military actions on Venezuela, the capture of leader Nicolás Maduro, and Donald Trump's announcement that the US will “control” the country and “reclaim the petroleum resources”, a single fact remains evident – this establishes a profoundly disturbing precedent.

A Grim History and a New Escalation

The United States carries a troubling legacy of interference, invasion and occupation in that part of the world, but this past Saturday morning witnessed its first major military attack on the continent of South America. “US supremacy in this hemisphere shall not be challenged from now on,” Trump proclaimed.

The move to assault another sovereign country and abduct its leader – mere days after he stated a desire for negotiations – carries even broader implications. We all have reason to be worried.

A Nation Left in Limbo

Venezuelans have endured a repressive, kleptocratic and incompetent regime under Mr Maduro, commonly thought to have fraudulently won the most recent election. They now face profound uncertainty at best. Mr Trump has suggested that Mr Maduro’s deputy, Delcy Rodríguez would follow US instructions, and rejected prominent critic and Nobel prize-winner María Corina Machado as a plausible replacement.

However, Ms Rodríguez, now the temporary head of state, has so far adopted a posture of resistance – and other elements of the decapitated regime are far more intransigent.

A Shift in Global Role

A man who was elected vowing to end foreign wars now says he is “unconcerned about deploying troops”. Redesignating the Department of Defense as the Department of War was a substantive signal. He no longer views the world’s superpower as a global policeman; he is turning it into a rogue state.

He holds the view that the US’s might permits it to do as it wishes with little consequence: consider the strikes on Nigeria, on Iran’s nuclear facilities. He asserts that control of Venezuela's petroleum means this latest episode “won’t cost us a penny”.

An Illegal Assault on Sovereignty

George W. Bush launched the invasion of Iraq on a lie. But this illegal attack came absent any United Nations mandate or congressional approval; Democrats were not even informed and say they were deliberately deceived in briefings. Mr Trump doesn’t seek to bend international norms, but to obliterate them.

Put aside the signal this transmits to Vladimir Putin, Xi Jinping and others, and question the future path of the United States. While the raid is said to have slain 40 Venezuelans, including civilians, there were no American fatalities. Mr Trump’s growing sense of invincibility will surely embolden more reckless actions.

The Stated Reason Versus the Real Aims

No one buys the justification that this is about drugs. Venezuela is only a secondary pathway for cocaine; Mr Trump recently exonerated the former Honduran president Juan Orlando Hernández for narcotics and arms offenses. Mr Trump himself has been explicit that he is motivated by the promise of energy wealth as well as personal bravado, the beliefs held by certain advisors, and the quest for a legacy as his support at home declines.

Tepid International Response and Waning Global Governance

The global reaction, especially in Europe, has – with notable outliers – been shockingly muted. That’s not due to Mr Maduro’s sins, but trepidation regarding Mr Trump’s wrath. The firm response from UN Secretary General António Guterres was notable, but this episode emphasizes the institution’s growing irrelevance.

Mr Trump’s anti-interventionist domestic base could still pressure him to focus on domestic issues once more – but escalating insurance prices, economic unhappiness and distracting files increase his appetite for distraction.

We are not yet 12 months into his time in office. World leaders may live to repent if they remain quiet at this juncture, given what – and who – could be next.