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Breaking into the world’s most-visited art institution in the middle of the day, grabbing eight items of invaluable historical gems and disappearing into Paris traffic on simple scooters may seem like the boldest of crimes, executed for global fame and ensuing Hollywood film treatments.

Experts who study trends in global cultural theft, however, see Sunday morning’s heist at the Louvre as something more prosaic: the most recent in a series of quick-hit thefts centered more on the material value of precious stones or materials than the artifacts’ significance, perpetuating a pattern that has emerged over the last ten years in Europe, Britain and the US. The venue, they suggest, would have been of secondary concern to the thieves.

“You may ask why thieves who want to take expensive jewellery are breaking into a world-famous museum rather than a luxury jewelry store,” said an expert in art recovery. “It's straightforward: it’s because these days a Cartier store is better protected.”

A series of violent retail store thefts mean that many stores have beefed up their security in the past few years, with armed guards on their premises and wares no longer kept on display overnight. Museums, on the other hand, look vulnerable, in part because of the in-built factor of being accessible institutions in older structures, and partly the current economic climate in many western countries.

“After the pandemic, governments across the globe have cut back on police and the arts funding,” noted Marinello. “With criminals entering the Louvre, it shows how at risk our institutions have become. This is a difficult time to be a museum.”

The robbery of the objects – featuring necklaces made up of eight sapphires and 631 diamonds, the crown of Empress Eugénie featuring nearly 2,000 diamonds and a hugely valuable diadem once possessed by a royal that the thieves dropped by the street on their way out – has naturally been compared with the 1911 theft of the famous painting from the Louvre, carried out by the Italian handyman Vincenzo Peruggia.

Better points of reference may be the recent theft of jewellery from a German institution worth over €113m, the taking of a £4.75m valuable object from a UK landmark the that year, the recent robbery of a large gold coin from Berlin’s Bode Museum or even a series of robberies of collector items from American institutions.

“It's a clear trend here,” said Marinello. “Break in, take items, and dismantle them as rapidly as possible.”

If the artefacts were to remain intact, experts say, the criminals would struggle to sell them. “It's impossible to trade something as recognizable as the Louvre’s jewels on the legal marketplace”, commented Lynda Albertson of the a relevant organization.

“They would be immediately recognised, particularly given the Ministry of Culture has released images of the items. Even a private collector or an auction house would want to see paperwork establishing proper ownership before handling such striking pieces.”

In the previous years, institutions were often hesitant to go public about the disappearance of well-known art pieces and would stay silent out of shame. These days, as art thefts are more widely publicised, the storage and selling of stolen art is dangerous for any criminal.

“Taking a Picasso, it has to remain intact or it becomes valueless, and you have to conceive of a plan to conceal it, perhaps by passing it around difficult criminal actors,” said Marinello. “There's ongoing risk to the risk of an accomplice informing authorities to cash in a ransom.”

For comparable factors, an art detective said it was vanishingly unlikely that the theft had been commissioned. “Stolen to order is something from films,” he said. “No one would handle these items. It’s all around the world and in all the newspapers. If you buy this, if you get caught, you go to jail. You cannot show it to your friends, you cannot bequeath it to your family.”

Modifying stolen works by melting down or re-cutting does lower the worth. When it comes to gems, it also comes with significant danger because modern cutting techniques give gems a bigger and brighter surface area, and older-style stones would either attract notice or reduce value for a coverup.

Importantly, however, melting down or re-cutting eliminates the proof of the theft. “My guess is that the Louvre thieves will try to bring the stolen goods to locations with diamond expertise like Israel, another nation or even as nearby as Antwerp, and locate an expert to remove the stones,” suggested Marinello.

The robbery at the Louvre has already brought up concerns about protective steps at the institution, with a leaked official review expected to be published soon pointing out “significant” and “persistent” delays in updating systems and noting that surveillance were lacking in many rooms. But specialists say showing valuable objects in older structures with a steady stream of visitors comes with risks that are impossible to eliminate completely.

“Historic buildings are more difficult to secure,” said an art crime professor. “They often have large accessible windows that allows for thieves to escape, and there may be preservation laws in place that mean you can’t fit them with secure windows.”

The most solid security systems for buildings should be designed “as a stronghold”, said a security advisor. “It should include multiple levels to repel attackers.”

Contemporary structures are fitted with state-of-the-art external CCTV cameras or in-built seismic detectors that raise alarm about a smashed window in immediately, but old museums may be hesitant to alter their appearance. Detection devices can be hard to install to stuccoed ceilings. Sensors may also have to be turned off during the day as hordes of visitors stomp through a museum.

The timing of the Louvre raid, which took place between morning hours local time, was common of modern robberies, Stürmann said. “It's logical why thefts tend to happen at either start or end of day. It’s often when security rotate and prior to the museum is crowded who effectively act as extra protection.”

Advances in technology may have thrown up new devices that can raise the alarm more rapidly and effectively, but it has also given thieves new methods with which to circumvent security measures. In Paris, the robbers reached the museum’s upper level with a vehicle-mounted ladder and breached a window with a battery-powered disc cutter.

An author said the conversation in France about the historic structure had mostly focused on visitor management in recent years, and less on security.

The museum has an on-site team of about fifty permanent emergency personnel, but their mission is mostly to protect the collection from blazes and water damage. “There is no rapid-response unit,” Sciolino said. “Ultimately, the security of the Louvre all depends on political will and money, and at present the nation lacks sufficient money.”