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A decade after the UK embarked on a hasty public vote that divided the nation and triggered turmoil, a warning emerges from beyond the Irish Sea: it could happen again.

Policymakers and voters drifted into Brexit and the same could occur with a referendum on a unified Ireland, triggering upheavals for which no one is equipped.

That is the message from two leading journalists from each side of the Irish border who have joined forces to examine the advantages and disadvantages of Northern Ireland departing the UK to establish a new state with the Republic of Ireland.

Governmental Establishments Unprepared

Fintan O’Toole and The Northern Ireland editor, have concluded that the administrative systems in Ireland and Britain are woefully unprepared for a possibly contentious and transformative referendum.

"The crucial insight of Brexit hasn't been learned, which is that events can come out of the blue and can gather momentum rapidly," the commentator said. "I would suggest that the political architecture of our islands remains very unstable."

Book Publication Intends to Stir Debate

The team have studied the governmental, economic and societal reasons for any structural alteration in a publication, For and Against a United Ireland, released by the Irish Royal Irish Academy.

They aim to encourage dialogue on the topic with a series of speaking events that will lead them to Westminster soon.

"What concerns all parties, or should haunt all involved, is the Brexit vote of 2016," commented O’Toole.

"We should prevent a referendum on a thumbs up-thumbs down, unclear proposal whose results have not been spelled out because then you find yourself with an highly split population where the losing side are unable to accept defeat and the people who have won lack clarity exactly what it is that they have won."

Constitutional Provision

Under the Good Friday agreement, the Northern Ireland secretary of state is obliged to schedule a public vote on Irish unification if it seems probable that a most voters would support.

Sinn Féin and other pro-unification groups argue such a time is approaching, and a non-profit named Ireland’s Future has garnered backing, but both governments and unionists downplay the possibility, making it uncertain whether or when there could be a national vote.

Insufficient Serious Debate

Partisan language for and against unification has obscured the absence of informed dialogue, stated McBride.

"People tend to be supportive or opposed the idea but the concrete planning which may surpass that to achieve it has largely not occurred. A great deal has taken place in academia but scarcely any politicians or campaigners are willing to participate with even the basics. To illustrate, what sort of state should be desired? Unitary? Federal?"

Publication's Method

In the volume, neither author advocates unity or the current situation. Both writes two essays that seek objectivity in detailing the rationale for a unified Ireland and the argument opposing it, assembling financial and social data, previous instances and governmental frameworks.

Discussions encompass identity markers, levies, health services, pensions, public liabilities and the danger of loyalist violence. The objective is to inform and provoke discussion.

"There's huge interest in the issue but there hasn't quite been a debate," stated the writer. "Dialogue suggests an acceptance of the idea that there may exist good arguments on each side."

Simultaneous Plebiscites

A referendum in Northern Ireland would additionally cause one in the republic, where voters say they favour unification but reject paying higher taxes or adopting a new flag to reflect pro-UK communities' British culture.

"Policymakers in Ireland does need to establish what the proposal from Irish nationalism is beyond just stating: 'We desire a united Ireland and we value you'," stated the commentator.

Possibility of Referendum

The journalist considers a referendum in his lifetime is possible and that it could happen abruptly. "It is possible just a mad or a bad or a incompetent government minister who says: 'Let us proceed and resolve it.'"

Both pro-unification advocates and pro-UK supporters have plausible, valid points, he said. "One side will succeed on this issue and the other side will ultimately be defeated but both parties has possesses important lessons to learn from the other's viewpoints."

Call for More Extensive Debate

Westminster should engage with the debate, stated the analyst. "This concerns your state. It's a British issue just as much as it is an Irish question."