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Ordinarily, the NFL's Head Coach of the Year trophy adheres to a straightforward script. It often functions as a type of mea culpa. We regret we got wrong your squad in our preseason projections.

On paper, it's a clear-cut trajectory: the coach who orchestrated the most dramatic resurgence receives the prize. However, it creates an yearly discussion about expectations and whether we're actually honoring superior coaching or just the greatest upset.

Yet the latest race is distinctly different. The list of contenders is remarkably deep. It has been the year of resurgences. The NFL has been chaotic, with recent conference champions fading and longtime underperformers rising collectively. During an normal season, a coach leading the his team to the top of the AFC would make him the overwhelming front-runner. But in such a chaotic and thrilling season, he's up against multiple other elite coaches.

This is how the projected ballot should be structured.

5) Ben Johnson, Chicago Bears, 11-5

Coach of the Year voters adore QBs. History shows this. Sean McVay in 2017. Kevin Stefanski in 2020. Brian Daboll in 2022. When you transform a franchise QB, you're well on your way home.

Ben Johnson not only corrected his young quarterback; he's unleashed him. Within an ideal environment, Williams has been given the opportunity to demonstrate his rare talent. From midseason onward, the Chicago offense sit at number four in offensive Expected Points Added per play. This isn't a brief surge – it's prolonged performance. Under Johnson, the quarterback has become more decisive, far less reckless, and has willingly submitted to the scheme rather than improvising. It is an offense built solely in Johnson's image: a bully-ball ground attack, a consistent dose of play-action passes and a imaginative aerial game that creates wide-open targets all over the field. The QB has capitalized. And when clear throws weren't available, he's been able to spin big plays from nothing.

The coach came to Chicago with a specific offensive philosophy. Virtually each decision – rebuilding the offensive line, utilizing the pass-catchers, turning the QB into a rhythm thrower – has worked. That's uncommon for a first-year head coach. And it's even more uncommon yet for a leader who walked into the organization with the level of hype Johnson did. For two straight cycles, he was the hottest name on the head coaching carousel. However when it comes to hiring a leader, there are zero guarantees. Remarkably, Johnson has lived up to expectations – and even exceeded them. He's proven not just to be a scheme dork but the type of leader that can breathe fresh energy into an franchise.

During a normal season, Johnson would be the runaway favorite. Yet this is not a normal season!

The area where his candidacy runs a bit unstuck is on defense. The Bears currently sit 25th in defensive efficiency. They are surviving on takeaways, and takeaways are famously inconsistent. Defensive minds can stress creating turnovers, but nobody can ensure it. He is on the list because the offensive production is sustainable. He's not higher because variance is doing too much of the defense's work. With a couple breaks of the ball, the Bears would be several victories worse off. It's been an remarkable transformation, and the foundation is established for sustained success. But he falls just short in this ranking.

4) The Jacksonville Jaguars Coach, His Team, 12-4

Coen is in a similar situation to his counterpart. He's a fellow first-time leader who has orchestrated a swift resurgence. During the stretch run of the season, he has Trevor Lawrence playing the most complete all-around ball of his career. And he's also overseen the transformation of a defense that now ranks fifth in the league in EPA per play.

What's more notably, he has mastered the leadership stuff, which wasn't a certainty following his early public appearances and some of his preseason decisions.

The coach walked into Jacksonville with an uncommonly raw coaching staff. In contrast to other coaches, who surrounded themselves with the ideal coaching cocktail of youth and experience, Coen hired first-timers. From the leader himself to assistants to position coaches, the Jaguars are stocked with rookies. That type of approach is intriguing in theory, but often collapses in practice – as past failures are a cautionary tale – because everyone is figuring out a new job on the fly. But Coen has pulled everyone and all elements together.

Following an initial strong beginning, there was a possibility that the campaign would veer off the track. A midseason setback caused the Jags wobbling again. That's usually when coaches overcorrect. Coen did not. Rather, he streamlined the approach. The offense stopped pursuing home-run plays and started seeking reliable ones. Coen refocused the attack around key players and the ground attack, and encouraged his QB to use his mobility more.

The outcomes are obvious. The Jaguars have won multiple games consecutively and will be the conference's No 3 playoff seed. He receives the slightest deduction in the standings because he took over a skilled roster, but he has demonstrated he can maximize that talent.

3) Mike Macdonald, Seattle Seahawks, Their Record

Each Strong of the Year argument has a pivotal moment. For the Seahawks coach, it was his quarterback move.

Parting ways from a incumbent, bringing in a new quarterback and partnering him with an innovative offensive coordinator might have ended the season in October. Instead, it made it. By the mid point of the season, the acquisition was an MVP contender. He has cooled off after that hot streak, dropping to 23rd in EPA per dropback over the second half of the schedule, placing him just a single place ahead of other QBs.

Still